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Fish & seafood outlook

Fish & seafood outlook

What's happening in the market in November

NOVEMBER AT A GLANCE:

  • Salmon – poor availability on Scottish origin due to on-going lice issues, Norwegian prices will start to rise in the run up to Christmas.
  • Cod & Haddock – availability and quality of fresh fish is improving.
  • Farmed Bass & Bream – good availability of standard sizes, pricing affected by currency fluctuations.
  • Exotics – strong volumes and reasonable prices on the majority of exotic species including Tuna and Swordfish.
  • Best of Skipper’s Catch: line-caught Sea Bass, Cornish Mackerel, Plaice.
  • We’re fixing our prices until New Year on our superb Sterling White Halibut and the following fresh exotics: Swordfish, Snapper, Barramundi, Barracuda, Grouper, Kingfish, Mahi Mahi and Marlin.
  • All our frozen pricing is now also confirmed for the rest of the year however we are expecting increases on some whitefish species and King Prawns (including coated King Prawns) in January.

CURRENCY: The Pound, which has been recently supported by the expectation of higher interest rates, fell back against some of major global currencies while inflation has reached its highest level in five and a half years. The GBP/EUR exchange rate is currently around €1.12 and is forecast to trade at a similar rate through until year end. Sterling is trading at over USD $1.30, an improvement month on month but lower than September highs. The Pound to Norwegian Kroner exchange rate is currently seen at around 10.5 NOK. (as of 17th October 2017)

FRESH SALMON

- Norwegian prices are expected to rise as demand starts to increase towards Christmas; this is always the case as Salmon is popular on festive menus and a must-have product for consumers across Europe in retail and foodservice

- Year on year prices will be slightly lower as overall demand dropped due to high prices throughout this year and there is also more fish in the marketwith Chile contributing more volume than in 2016. Continuing sea lice issues, however, are keeping prices high as farmers continue to look for new and suitable methods to control numbers.

- Scottish supply will remain limited as they concentrate on retail customers towards Christmas and prices will rise ahead of Norwegian.

- Prices are likely to remain firm through Q1 as farmers show a reluctance to harvest with the preference to leave stocks to grow on for later in the year.

FRESH COD & HADDOCK

- Availability should improve on both species compared to September and October, and fish quality is improving as the cooler water temperature meansfirmer flesh.

- Cod prices are anticipated to remain quite high due to demand whilst Haddock prices are likely to fluctuate depending on weather conditions.

FRESH FARMED SEA BASS & GILT HEAD BREAM

- Although the supply of both Bass and Bream should be stable in November, including standard 300-400g Bass and 300-400g Bream, prices may fluctuate depending on the exchange rate.

- Less popular 1.5kg+ fish will be in limited supply as they only constitute a low percentage of the cage and there is strong demand in Europe.

- There are talks of possible Greek supplies entering the market however, due to the uncertainty of their stock levels, this may or may not have an affecton current prices.

FRESH EXOTICS

- Tuna supply is forecast to be strong with stable prices. Our fish will come from India, Sri Lanka, the Seychelles and the Maldives. We should be able to maintain good supply with the flexibility to move from one origin to another when required.

- We also expect to see good volumes and reasonable prices on Swordfish from all key sources such as Sri Lanka, India and the Seychelles.

- With the monsoon season now over, we will see improved landings of exotics from the Indian Ocean with exception of Red Mullet that has been in poor supply as of late with prices pushing up.

OTHER FRESH FISH & SEAFOOD

There are some factors that will affect prices on local wild species towards the end of the year:

- Poor weather during autumn will impact landings of Gurnard, Squid, Herring, Octopus, Whiting, Dabs, Hake, Plaice and Megrim.

- End of season for line-caught Bass, Lemon Sole, Pollack, Coley, Lobster, Mackerel and Scallops.

- Heightened demand, with prices peaking at Christmas/New Year time, will have an effect on Scallops, wild Turbot, Monkfish and Dovers.

- Mackerel – Landings have been inconsistent with poor weather causing price fluctuations. Larger shoals swam further north away from Scotland. Norway and the Faroes are reporting record catches this year.

- Pollack and Red Mullet – Native Red Mullet landings have been low all year keeping prices high. Gill net boats also had problems with finding Pollack thus surprisingly poor landings of this specie throughout summer and into autumn.

FROZEN COD & HADDOCK

- The 2018 Barents Sea Atlantic whitefish quota has now been agreed and set by the Russian and Norwegian fisheries at 775,000 metric ton for Cod and 202,305 metric ton for Haddock, which are both reductions of 13% on 2017.

- Prices for headed and gutted Atlantic Cod have increased gradually since the summer on the back of slower then expected catching, as well as the anticipated cut in the quota.

- Pacific Cod has been in short supply throughout 2017 which has added more pressure to Atlantic Cod as customers switched over.

- Haddock prices crashed in 2015 as demand dried up with customers switching over to other species on the back of heavy inflation that was driven by quota cuts; demand started to pick up again at the end of last year. The forward view is Haddock prices will rise again on the back of the 2018 quota reduction and increasing demand.

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From the latest updates on what's been landed where through to weather reports and customer reviews. M&J Seafood keeps you close to what's breaking in the industry.